Elections in Canberra and NSW this weekend

Several elections are being held this Saturday across NSW and the ACT.

In the state of New South Wales, there are four by-elections being held concurrently in the electorates of Lakemba, Cabramatta, Ryde and Port Macquarie; and the Australian Capital Territory are holding elections on the same day. A veritable psephological smorgasbord.

In New South Wales the ruling Labor (ALP) government (left wing) has suffered a string of stuff-ups so long it would stretch from Sydney to Hawaii. Nevertheless, the ALP remains favourite to hold the seat of Lakemba, (which it currently holds with a 34% margin), and Cabramatta (29%). I am expecting the Liberal (right wing) party to do better in Cabramatta than Lakemba, but it would take a boilover bigger than you would find at the Southern Portugal Seafood Hotpot Festival for the Libs to take either seat. Kudos to the Liberal party for even fielding candidates in Lakemba and Cabramatta - the two safest ALP electorates in the state.

In Port Macquarie, the contest is between the Nationals (the Liberals' coalition partner) and Independents. Labor is not standing a candidate. Anything could happen here, but I expect the National candidate to scrape home, thanks mainly to the fact they are not (to be the best of my knowledge) exchanging preferences. Port Macquarie has an Independent-heavy field, and one candidate in particular has attracted support of some disaffected Liberal Party supporters, apparently because the Libs chose not to field a candidate of their own. I can understand why that would have pissed off some Liberals, but I can't quite fathom the logic of supporting an Independent over the Nationals for that reason alone. They need to ask themselves whose side they are actually on.

In the northwestern Sydney electorate of Ryde, currently held by Labor with a 10% margin, the government is in a worse position than New Orleans, with the tide of public opinion looking set to deluge the seat and deliver it quite comfortably to the Liberal party. I expect a swing to the Liberals of between 15 and 20 percent.

The election to be held in the ACT is a different kettle of fish entirely - different issues, different parties and a very different voting system to NSW - and too complicated for me to expatiate about here, besides, it's getting late! Suffice to say, the contest in the ACT is between Labor, the Liberals (the Nationals are a non-entity in the ACT, hence the Liberals are a stand-alone party) and The Greens. The ALP are the governing party in the ACT, led by Chief Minister Jon Stanhope, aka Jon Hopeless or (my favourite) Stan NoHope. The Liberals are led by Zed Seselja and I don't think The Greens have a leader, although a bloke called Rattenbury seems to be its chief spokesman. Living within an hour's drive of the ACT, I get all of Canberra's TV and radio stations, hence I am bombarded with the most trite and nauseating political advertising you will ever likely see or hear. Those of you who have not experienced these commercials and the incessant, vacuous bleating of overpaid clerks masquerading as political candidates, do not realise how blessed you are. I don't care who wins, as long as Stan NoHope does not. For those of you unfamiliar with him, he makes George W Bush look like the world president of Toastmasters. A man (Stanhope) for whom the saying '...whose whole purpose in life is to serve as a warning to others', seems very appropriate.

US Election - Prediction?

If you are wondering if I will be making a prediction re the US election, the answer is 'you betcha!' But you will have to wait a little while. Although I have a pretty fair idea in my own mind of what the outcome will be, some tweaking of the electoral map will be necessary up until early November. There are a couple of states that are not exactly on everyone's radar, and which I will be looking at rather closely.

I will not be basing my prediction on polls, as they are notoriously inaccurate and skewed on a variety of fronts. When you have a country as big and as disparate as America, and with the vote in many states being pretty evenly split between Democrat and Republican, relying on polling data is a nightmare.

This is why I - along with tens of thousands of others - will be basing my prediction on nothing more than a combination of gut instinct and past voting patterns, especially where those patterns appear to be cyclical.

Psephology is an inaccurate science. Psephologists might disagree with me on that, but show me one who is right 100% of the time. In any case, it is not a subject that someone as partisan as I can do much with, other than have a bit of fun.

So stay tuned for my prediction in the dying days of this campaign!

My friends, I don't know who won the 2nd Presidential debate

Unfortunately I didn't see the debate, as I was in the car. But thankfully (probably not the most apt choice of words) ABC News Radio took it live off the dish from Nashville.

I don't know who won, and I don't care - because I don't think it's relevant. I mean, no one (at least, no one with a brain) will be voting on November 4, and asking themselves prior to voting, 'now gosh darn it, who won the second debate, 'cos that's who I'm gonna vote for.' It just doesn't happen like that.

But I will say this: John McCain's people need to have a very loud word in whichever ear he hears best out of, and tell him to can the expression 'my friends'. The first couple of times during the debate it was endearing and folksy, but, by the twenty-eighth time he used it, it just got grating, condescending, and left me thinking that he couldn't think of anything else to say.

At this point that's all I have to say!

Yes, take the gloves off - and where Palin should go next

Gov. Sarah Palin wants to take the gloves off. She wants John McCain to take the gloves off.

Good idea!

But, with such a left-wing, inexperienced, rhetorical opponent, with extremely questionable past associations, why were the gloves ever on in the first place?

McCain has withdrawn campaign resources from Michigan, i.e. he's conceded the state to BHO. Big mistake! But Palin wants to go there with her first dude and talk to the people in the factories.

She should do just that.

And after Michigan, Palin should do rallies in Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, Minnesota & North Carolina. And throw in some left-fielders (pun intended) like Washington (state), Maine, Massachusets and New Mexico. I have always been a firm believer in candidates putting in appearances in (what appears to be) their opponents' territory. The benefits are twofold: It keeps your opponents guessing, and helps firm up your own support base in that state. It can also, believe it or not, sway some swinging voters. That's why I think Palin's appearance in California this week was a good thing. I actually hope she gets back there before the election.

In short, Palin needs to visit as many teetering states as possible before November 4. Memo to her campaign managers: if she wants to, let her!!

Palin clinches debate

I watched the debate. At the end, for me (and I know we're a tad biased here - but rightly so!) it was 60/40 Palin.

She was sensational. Poised, calm, folksy and, more importantly, made sure Biden didn't hit any homers.

Poor old Joe looked like he aged ten years in 90 minutes!

Many commentators have said that Palin is the new Reagan.

On April 13, 1998, Time magazine ran a special edition entitled: 'Leaders and Revolutionaries'. Reagan, appropriately, was featured in the 20 profiles in that edition.

Peggy Noonan, Reagan's special assistant and speechwriter, wrote the article, including the following:

Reagan didn't become President to preach some
ego-centric sense of personal destiny...he wanted the presidency so that he could do big things.

John McCain, in deciding to 'tap' Sarah Palin, clearly thought the Alaskan Governor was destined to do big things too. From tonight's debate performance, we should all be glad for McCain's genius and foresight.

The McCain team now must use Sarah a whole lot more on the campaign.

The fight is not over yet, folks.

Ronny is smiling down, I'm sure. Let's hope and pray he can celebrate with the angels - and the rest of us - on November 4.

First-year uni students to be taught basic grammar

This story from news.com.au made me weep.

Australia's Monash University is about to begin teaching its first-year students basic grammar - grammar they should have been taught in school, but weren't. How could they have learnt it in school, when their teachers were just as clueless on the difference between a noun and a verb?

Monash lecturer Caron Dann said the majority of her 500 students in communication were strangers to English grammar.

Marking essays, I discovered the majority had no
idea how to use apostrophes, or any other punctuation for that matter; that
random spelling was in and sentence construction out.

Argh!!!! I could see this coming.......

About half thought plurals were formed
by adding an apostrophe-s, as in apple's and banana's.

Canberra Airport - Up, up and aw......wait a minute!

I am a big fan of Canberra Airport - and airports generally (long story.)

The Canberra Times reports that plans for the AUD$250M airport terminal redevelopment at Canberra are on hold indefinitely (I hate the word 'indefinitely'.)

UPDATE

I have just seen the local Canberra news on TV, and apparently the story isn't as doomsday-ish as reported in the Canberra Times (now, why doesn't that surprise me?)

It seems that the airport's plan is to delay the start of the new terminal building - for the time being - but hope to commence building before Christmas. Excellent news! Canberra desperately needs a new airport terminal.

In the same news report, airport general manager, Stephen Byron, clarifies the reason for the delay:

...now is not the time to be starting a project
when you're not sure that the debt market is going to let you finish it.