Elections in Canberra and NSW this weekend

Several elections are being held this Saturday across NSW and the ACT.

In the state of New South Wales, there are four by-elections being held concurrently in the electorates of Lakemba, Cabramatta, Ryde and Port Macquarie; and the Australian Capital Territory are holding elections on the same day. A veritable psephological smorgasbord.

In New South Wales the ruling Labor (ALP) government (left wing) has suffered a string of stuff-ups so long it would stretch from Sydney to Hawaii. Nevertheless, the ALP remains favourite to hold the seat of Lakemba, (which it currently holds with a 34% margin), and Cabramatta (29%). I am expecting the Liberal (right wing) party to do better in Cabramatta than Lakemba, but it would take a boilover bigger than you would find at the Southern Portugal Seafood Hotpot Festival for the Libs to take either seat. Kudos to the Liberal party for even fielding candidates in Lakemba and Cabramatta - the two safest ALP electorates in the state.

In Port Macquarie, the contest is between the Nationals (the Liberals' coalition partner) and Independents. Labor is not standing a candidate. Anything could happen here, but I expect the National candidate to scrape home, thanks mainly to the fact they are not (to be the best of my knowledge) exchanging preferences. Port Macquarie has an Independent-heavy field, and one candidate in particular has attracted support of some disaffected Liberal Party supporters, apparently because the Libs chose not to field a candidate of their own. I can understand why that would have pissed off some Liberals, but I can't quite fathom the logic of supporting an Independent over the Nationals for that reason alone. They need to ask themselves whose side they are actually on.

In the northwestern Sydney electorate of Ryde, currently held by Labor with a 10% margin, the government is in a worse position than New Orleans, with the tide of public opinion looking set to deluge the seat and deliver it quite comfortably to the Liberal party. I expect a swing to the Liberals of between 15 and 20 percent.

The election to be held in the ACT is a different kettle of fish entirely - different issues, different parties and a very different voting system to NSW - and too complicated for me to expatiate about here, besides, it's getting late! Suffice to say, the contest in the ACT is between Labor, the Liberals (the Nationals are a non-entity in the ACT, hence the Liberals are a stand-alone party) and The Greens. The ALP are the governing party in the ACT, led by Chief Minister Jon Stanhope, aka Jon Hopeless or (my favourite) Stan NoHope. The Liberals are led by Zed Seselja and I don't think The Greens have a leader, although a bloke called Rattenbury seems to be its chief spokesman. Living within an hour's drive of the ACT, I get all of Canberra's TV and radio stations, hence I am bombarded with the most trite and nauseating political advertising you will ever likely see or hear. Those of you who have not experienced these commercials and the incessant, vacuous bleating of overpaid clerks masquerading as political candidates, do not realise how blessed you are. I don't care who wins, as long as Stan NoHope does not. For those of you unfamiliar with him, he makes George W Bush look like the world president of Toastmasters. A man (Stanhope) for whom the saying '...whose whole purpose in life is to serve as a warning to others', seems very appropriate.