US Electoral Votes '08 - Fearless Prediction

What's a US election without a bit of fun with the electoral college, huh?!

I mentioned on an earlier post that I would blog my prediction as to the outcome of the US elections. I am doing so now, a little earlier than I had planned, but, seeing as voting has already commenced, I might as well put my money where my mouth is.

I am having trouble uploading the image of my completed red and blue map of the USA, so I will give you the states' names, together with the number of electoral college votes for that state.

As previously mentioned, my predictions are not based on any polls, but on gut instinct from thousands of articles and blogs viewed in the past couple of months, and past voting patterns.

I believe strongly that in this election a far greater number of states are "in play" than polling would have us believe, which is why a couple of states that I predict will be in the red column will surprise a few people.

So, without further ado, here are The Hutch's fearless predictions for each camp, starting with the Blue corner:

Democrat states won (prediction):
Hawaii 4
Oregon 7
California 55
Minnesota 10
Iowa 7
Wisconsin 10
Illinois 21
Michigan 17
Pennsylvania 21
New York 31
Vermont 3
Massachusetts 12
Connecticut 7
Rhode Island 4
New Jersey 15
District of Columbia 3
Delaware 3
Maryland 10
for a total electoral college of 240.


And, in the Red corner
Republican states won (prediction):
Alaska 3
Washington 11
Idaho 4
Nevada 4
Arizona 10
Utah 5
Montana 3
Wyoming 3
Colorado 9
New Mexico 5
North Dakota 3
South Dakota 3
Nebraska 5
Kansas 6
Oklahoma 7
Texas 34
Missouri 11
Arkansas 6
Louisiana 9
Mississippi 6
Alabama 9
Georgia 15
Florida 27
South Carolina 8
North Carolina 15
Tennessee 11
Kentucky 8
Indiana 11
Ohio 20
West Virginia 5
Virginia 13
New Hampshire 4
Maine 4
for a total electoral college of 298.

So, my final prediction is Republican 298, Democrat 240.

Don't say you weren't told, now!

The Boring Broadsheet lives up to its name

This gem in the SMH on Barry Obama. To wit:

Barack Obama seems finally to have hit on a strategy to fight the Sarah Palin phenomenon: sidestep the feisty Republican vice-presidential pick and turn full fire on an "out of touch" John McCain.

I'm not sure which is worse: the SMH for running this article, or the Obamessiah campaign for dreaming it up. Honestly, if this is the best that BHO's disciples can come up with then they might as well start writing their concession speeches now.

I have no intention of giving the Democrats free advice, but it seems obvious that they should be telling voters what they will do if they get elected. Attacking the opposition only makes the public see them as angry and divisive. The fact that they are angry and divisive owes more to history than to this campaign specifically.

From the same article:

But the Democrat is now firing back - branding 72-year-old McCain as an economic illiterate stuck in the pre-internet era...

Appalling, stereotyped and wrong.

McCain is no luddite. He cannot use computers himself because of the torture dished out to him as a POW. From all reports he is a voracious user of the internet, it's just that he needs to get his staff and family to do the searching and typing for him.

Greg Sheridan thinks the US election will be close

An interesting and thorough article here from Greg Sheridan from The Australian, on the vicissitudes of the US electoral process, and the contest between character and celebrity. Well worth a read.

Mr Sheridan boasts of his success in predicting the outcomes of US presidential elections, and believes the red and blue states will remain pretty much as they were for both the 2000 and 2004 elections, and predicting a close, but, nevertheless, BHO victory.

God help the world.

Mr Sheridan's well-reasoned (though frightening) prediction notwithstanding, being an interested observer in elections myself, I would have a little wager on the final result being actually surprisingly clear cut, and some blue states turning a distinct shade of crimson.

Draw your own conclusion on who you think will be sworn in next January.

Do they get any moose in Washington?