ACT Election result

The pundits seem to think that the outcome of the ACT election held yesterday will be 7 Labor members, 7 Liberal and 3 Greens (compared to the old Assembly of 9 Labor, 6 Liberals, 1 Green and 1 Independent). I personally think that scenario is too neat, and, in the final wash-up, is more likely to be either one fewer Green plus one Independent, or one fewer Liberal and one extra Green. In other words, 7,7,2,1 or 7,6,4. Much will depend, of course, on the distribution of preferences as to who gets the final couple of spots.

UPDATE

Sunday 26 October, 2008

The final result of the ACT election is 7 Labor, 6 Liberal and 4 Greens, vindicating my thoughts that 7,7,3 was too glib a prediction. The leaders of the ALP and the Liberals parties are still in talks with the Greens as to which of the major parties will (with The Greens' support) form government.

I had the misfortune of listening to Jon Stanhope's election night speech on the radio. Stanhope's pitiful attempt at self-mockery during his speech in relation to what he thinks is his so-called "perceived arrogance" by some voters, achieved nothing; except to confirm to me, and I suspect many others, that, on this issue, what he thinks some voters perceive and what actually is, are one and the same.

John Howard once famously said "Canberrans live like Double Bay, but vote like Cessnock." As evidenced by the outcome yesterday, Howard was spot on - again.

The fact that the ALP in Canberra received a swing against them of more than 9 percent is encouraging. That most of this vote spillage went to The Greens, is not.

I think Zed Seselja is a shining light in the ACT Liberal Party, and I have no doubt he will be Chief Minister one day. That the Liberals couldn't garner more votes is no fault of his.

The ALP produced some of the most inaccurate, vicious, carping and bilious advertisements during this campaign that I have ever heard. The Liberals were totally outspent in this regard. Where they could not respond in volume, the Liberals should have made up for in content. Specifically, marketing themselves better, and attacking the ALP more strategically, especially in relation to Stanhope's arrogance (real, not perceived), lack of community consultation, school and medical centre closures, to name a mere few.

Whilst Canberrans have registered a protest vote against the most left-wing government and Labor leader in the country, instead of using their protest vote wisely to vote for a fresh, vibrant alternative in the Liberals, they voted for The Greens - a loopy outfit - no doubt disciples of Al Gore and his Marxist-environmental cult. Will these over-educated, guilt-ridden, eco-fascist voters ever see the light? Is there any hope for the world?

Meanwhile however, if you are an aspiring Labor politician, there is no easier place in the country to get elected to government than in the ACT.

They say you get the government you deserve. Election after election, Canberrans prove that adage, beautifully.

Elections in Canberra and NSW this weekend

Several elections are being held this Saturday across NSW and the ACT.

In the state of New South Wales, there are four by-elections being held concurrently in the electorates of Lakemba, Cabramatta, Ryde and Port Macquarie; and the Australian Capital Territory are holding elections on the same day. A veritable psephological smorgasbord.

In New South Wales the ruling Labor (ALP) government (left wing) has suffered a string of stuff-ups so long it would stretch from Sydney to Hawaii. Nevertheless, the ALP remains favourite to hold the seat of Lakemba, (which it currently holds with a 34% margin), and Cabramatta (29%). I am expecting the Liberal (right wing) party to do better in Cabramatta than Lakemba, but it would take a boilover bigger than you would find at the Southern Portugal Seafood Hotpot Festival for the Libs to take either seat. Kudos to the Liberal party for even fielding candidates in Lakemba and Cabramatta - the two safest ALP electorates in the state.

In Port Macquarie, the contest is between the Nationals (the Liberals' coalition partner) and Independents. Labor is not standing a candidate. Anything could happen here, but I expect the National candidate to scrape home, thanks mainly to the fact they are not (to be the best of my knowledge) exchanging preferences. Port Macquarie has an Independent-heavy field, and one candidate in particular has attracted support of some disaffected Liberal Party supporters, apparently because the Libs chose not to field a candidate of their own. I can understand why that would have pissed off some Liberals, but I can't quite fathom the logic of supporting an Independent over the Nationals for that reason alone. They need to ask themselves whose side they are actually on.

In the northwestern Sydney electorate of Ryde, currently held by Labor with a 10% margin, the government is in a worse position than New Orleans, with the tide of public opinion looking set to deluge the seat and deliver it quite comfortably to the Liberal party. I expect a swing to the Liberals of between 15 and 20 percent.

The election to be held in the ACT is a different kettle of fish entirely - different issues, different parties and a very different voting system to NSW - and too complicated for me to expatiate about here, besides, it's getting late! Suffice to say, the contest in the ACT is between Labor, the Liberals (the Nationals are a non-entity in the ACT, hence the Liberals are a stand-alone party) and The Greens. The ALP are the governing party in the ACT, led by Chief Minister Jon Stanhope, aka Jon Hopeless or (my favourite) Stan NoHope. The Liberals are led by Zed Seselja and I don't think The Greens have a leader, although a bloke called Rattenbury seems to be its chief spokesman. Living within an hour's drive of the ACT, I get all of Canberra's TV and radio stations, hence I am bombarded with the most trite and nauseating political advertising you will ever likely see or hear. Those of you who have not experienced these commercials and the incessant, vacuous bleating of overpaid clerks masquerading as political candidates, do not realise how blessed you are. I don't care who wins, as long as Stan NoHope does not. For those of you unfamiliar with him, he makes George W Bush look like the world president of Toastmasters. A man (Stanhope) for whom the saying '...whose whole purpose in life is to serve as a warning to others', seems very appropriate.